Feel free to share with others who need to know what we’re facing with the progressive movement in our country. These are the links to each column, in order.
Feel free to share with others who need to know what we’re facing with the progressive movement in our country. These are the links to each column, in order.
Putin builds China links as ties with west fray
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Beijing
When Vladimir Putin met China’s president Xi Jinping, a memorandum of understanding for a second massive gas supply deal caught most of the attention.
For the Russian president, the deal may be less appealing for its commercial benefits than its ability to advance the larger goal of cementing ties with its eastern neighbour.
“Co-operation between Russia and China is extremely important to keep the peace in the framework of international law, making it more stable,” Mr Putin told his Chinese counterpart, just two weeks after he accused the US of destabilising the world by frequently violating international law.
Russia’s updated military doctrine is expected to target Nato and the US more clearly as the Ukraine crisis has frayed Moscow’s relations with the western alliance. The current doctrine lists only Nato expansion, foreign troop deployments in neighbouring states, destabilisation in certain countries and deployment of missile defence systems as “external military dangers”.
People familiar with the document said Nato and the US would be openly designated as threats or adversaries in the document’s new version, due to be published next month.
Russian diplomats and analysts also said Moscow hoped to build the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, founded by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tadjikistan in 1996, into a more meaningful security alliance.
In a speech last month that left western observers bewildered for its rabid anti-Americanism and its lack of proposals for a positive agenda, Mr Putin bemoaned what he described as the destruction of the mechanisms that used to govern international security affairs.
“Sadly, there is no guarantee and no certainty that the current system of global and regional security is able to protect us from upheavals. This system has become seriously weakened, fragmented and deformed,” Mr Putin said. He accused the US of creating a world order in which brute force could become the only means for resolving conflicts.
According to people involved in drafting Mr Putin’s speech, it initially contained a reference to “Helsinki II” – the idea that Russia, the US and Europe should try to work out a new framework governing their security relations similar to the 1975 Helsinki Accords. A proposal by then-president Dmitry Medvedev in 2008 for a new version of the agreement credited with lowering tension during the cold war failed to get off the ground because western countries saw it as a bid to undermine Nato.
“The concept had been prepared for Putin back then, but they have lost confidence that this could work now, so it was dropped from Putin’s speech last month,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, a Moscow think-tank. “Helsinki was about fixed spheres of influence, and it worked as long as there was balance of power and deterrence. That spirit is gone now.”
Another longstanding piece of the European security architecture is the Nato Russia Act, in which Nato pledged not to create permanent bases on Russia’s borders.
But the tension over the Ukraine crisis has fuelled Russian fears that this promise is being undermined.
In addition, even though Nato has little intention of welcoming Ukraine and Georgia into the alliance, member countries see it as politically impossible to openly rule out their membership in order to keep them as buffers between the western alliance and Russia.
Mr Putin is under no illusion that things will get any easier. The next US president is almost certain to be more hawkish towards Russia than Barack Obama, who entered the White House seeking a hopeful reset of relations.
“This forces Russia to head in a different direction – towards China and Iran, out of the western international system,” says Cliff Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group risk consultancy.
Moscow is already giving Nato a taste of what that means. The Russian air force has been probing the air space of Nato members with increasing frequency and range over the past two years, repeatedly forcing European militaries from Norway to Turkey scramble fighters.
By S.H. Townsend
To my loyal readers:
Introducing the newest regular contributor to FSP, Doug Smith!
What can I say about Doug Smith…Doug is undoubtedly one of the most intelligent people I know. I appreciate his service to our country in the Navy and his commitment to our nation as a patriotic citizen. He’s a superb writer who often delves into “tongue in cheek” analysis of government and possesses what has become an “archaic” view of conservative responsibility to our nation. I appreciate him as a writer, musician and friend. Please welcome Doug to the FSP army!
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About the author:
Doug Smith was born in Huntington, WV during the Eisenhower administration. Ike was singularly unaffected by the event. It did begin a series of adventure for Doug, however.
While he considers Huntington his hometown, and West Virginia his home state, he has traveled and lived in a number of places. By the time he began school, he had lived in Huntington, Portsmouth, Va, Santa Anna, Ca.
Nor did formal schooling stop that tendency to travel. After beginning school in Huntington, his family moved enough so that by the time he graduated high school 12 years later, he had attended 7 schools.
During school , Doug worked as a short order cook, curb boy, soda jerk, bus boy, and pearl diver. He was a quintessential Band Geek, musician, and music lover. Sizing up his prospects in the middle of the recession of 73-75, and being 18 feeling invincible, he opted for a stable, quiet, sedate endeavor.
He joined the Navy.
During 2 years of training in electronics, he embarked on several great adventures. He married, began a family which grew to 4 children, ( and ultimately 5 grandchildren) , and joined the crew of a Nuclear Fast Attack Submarine.
He served 9 years in the Submarine force, as an Electronics Technician on a boat, an Instructor at the Naval Submarine School in New London, achieving the rate of Chief Petty Officer.
Doug has been in over 30 US states, 10 foreign countries, 2 continents, 2 hemispheres, 2 Oceans, 3 Seas, the Panama Canal, the Straights of Magellan, the Gulf of Mexico, and in his travels has logged over 1.5 million miles.
He also, much to his chagrin, voted for Jimmy Carter. 4 years, of malaise later, as part of a military who sat seething through the debacle of the US Embassy hostages in Iran, and Carter s impotence as a Commander in Chief, he heard a speech given by the Governor of California, Ronald Reagan. He became, first, one of the Reagan Democrats, who crossed over to help put him in office, then later, as he saw the strength and confidence growing in the country, a dedicated conservative.
Since returning to West Virginia from the Navy, he has worked as a Vocational Teacher, in the mining industry, and in electronics and computers.
He is an amateur musician, artist, and writer. Which of course means that no one pays him to do any of these things. While he will accept donations, he is subject to tax, just like everyone else. This, of course, serves to strengthen his conservatism. Meanwhile, his amateur status seems to be safe, since donations are pouring in as quickly as a politician admitting a mistake.
He reads, writes, and comments on conservative principles, mental health issues, and issues affecting the health and strength of the USA, believing that these principles provide the best path to leave a stronger and better country for his children and grandchildren.
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Perfection.
The word is alluring. Who doesn’t love a perfect game; a perfect sunset; a perfect day? Who doesn’t dread a “perfect storm”? We also feel a bit inadequate because we never seem to quite achieve personal perfection.
In politics, the desire for perfection has created two unintended, but insidious traps.
I like to think of them as the “If only” trap, and the “all or nothing “trap.
Let’s take a look first at the If only trap.
From Plato’s Republic, through the French Revolution, to the 20th century string of failed Socialist states, have fallen into this particular trap. These utopians buy into the fantasy that they can overcome human nature and create a paradise in which everyone does the good thing and the right thing all the time, and everyone is content.
If only, everyone would give to the best of their ability, and be satisfied with getting what they need (by our definition) it would be Utopia. The trap they fail to see in their thinking is
“How great things would be if not for those pesky people.”
But societies are invariably made of people, not angels. They act in their own interest, more often than not. Their “better angels” are subject to their own whims and failings.
And so, when everyone working in a factory gets the same pay, few will work harder or faster than the worst worker. Industry and ambition are not rewarded, so everything tends to the mediocre at best, and more often than not, failure. While the urge to compassion may lead people to help the poor, we see all too often that state sponsored, and forced, “compassion, lead to paying to reward irresponsible behaviors. Time and again we get more of what we pay for more of. We pay people not to work. We pay alcoholics because they can’t keep a job due to their drinking. We pay to support people who start families which they have no ability to support. Utopians are then surprised that for all our money spent, we get more people not working, caught in alcoholism, and having children they are unable to support. Common sense folks who work and live among other people are not surprised. Economists are not surprised.
When these principles fail in Russia, they try them in France. When they fail there, our own Utopians try it here. When it fails under Wilson, they reason, Wilson was not our guy. FDR will make it work. When he does not, LBJ says, I ll do it right. After 17 Trillion of Great Society spending, with no reduction in the numbers living in poverty, there are still Utopians who argue
“If only we had spent more, if only WE had been in charge, it would have worked. “
If only is a form of insanity. It denies the realities, and tries to govern based on what “we ought to do”, and not what we actually do. And it fails, disastrously every time.
If only people would not react like that. But time and again, they do.
The other trap, which I see conservatives fall into, is the “all or nothing “trap.
This one says, well, if I can’t eat cake, I’ll just eat mud. This is the trap that says if my party does not go far enough to pull us out of the ditch, then I might as well let the guy who drove into the ditch keep driving. This is the argument of the child who will cut his nose off to spite his face if he can’t get his way. ( I raised one of those!) It is based on emotion, not reason. If I want a Congress to cut taxes by 10 percent, and they only cut them 5 %, then I might as well vote for the guy who is going to raise taxes by 20%. How’s that again?
We saw this play out in 2012. Dissatisfied with Mitt Romney, 4 million GOP voters who voted for John McCain in 2008 sat out the election. Barack Obama went on to win re election by fewer votes than he did in 08, and by fewer than those 4 million. Had they voted, Romney would be President today. Now, would he have been as good a President as some of the others in the 2012 GOP field? Perhaps not. Would he have been better than the continued failures of Barack Obama? You bet!
Conservatives who fall into the All or Nothing trap, will nominate the most conservative candidate possible, even if he cannot be elected. They will only vote if the nominee is the most conservative possible candidate.
The result of this form of insanity is that conservatives get the worst possible outcome, e.g. a radical Barack Obama, instead of a “better than a sharp stick in the eye” Mitt Romney.
William F Buckley put forth the Buckley rule. ““Nominate the most conservative candidate who is electable.” Mr. Buckley s rule made a lot of sense.
Let’s wish for the perfect, hope for the best, but always work to get the better. Perhaps we can move out of the politically insane traps that have brought us to the chaos all around us in 2014.

The shift in the balance of power in the U.S. Senate affirms the disdain most Americans have for the policies of Barack Obama.
Unfortunately, Congressional balance of power could mean very little during the remaining two years of this administration. Obama’s intended reliance on his executive powers and his bully pulpit highlight his shortcomings in working with Congress.
Liberals blame a gridlocked Congress for Obama’s failures but conveniently forget that Democrats controlled Congress during the first two years of Obama’s presidency. Since then, his incapacity to reach across party lines and create any semblance of bipartisanship is the true reason for our congressional cul-de-sac.
Such an impasse never occurred under Bill Clinton, who faced a GOP majority during the bulk of his presidency, or Ronald Reagan, the “great communicator” who consistently placed people above big government. The inability to muster even the slightest “Clintonesque” or “Reaganesque” presidential leadership qualities has essentially rendered Obama a lame duck president.
But then there’s the executive order.
Just two weeks before delivering his 2014 State of the Union address, Obama doubled down on his commitment to fundamentally change America with or without the elected voice of the people.
“We’re not just going to be waiting for legislation in order to make sure that we’re providing Americans the kind of help they need. I’ve got a pen, and I’ve got a phone.” Obama said during a White House cabinet meeting. “And I can use that pen to sign executive orders and take executive actions and administrative actions that move the ball forward.”
Now it’s true other presidents have leveraged the “grant of executive power” provided in Article II of the Constitution, some more than Obama. But it isn’t the “quantity”; it’s the ultra-progressive “quality” of his actions that concern most Americans.
Attempting to minimize Senate seat losses, Obama postponed decisions on a host of contentious issues related to ObamaCare, immigration and the environment until after the midterm elections. But a tyrannical storm is brewing.
The administration announced that health-insurance premium rates on the ObamaCare exchange won’t be available until Nov. 15, when the Healthcare.gov website begins its 2015 enrollment. How politically convenient! It’s noteworthy that last year’s enrollment began on Oct. 1, making this year’s timetable clearly an intentional delay.
In June, Obama vowed “to fix as much of our immigration system as I can on my own, without Congress,” but has taken no executive action on immigration before the midterms. The White House reportedly is preparing to provide amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants in late November.
The Environmental Protection Agency is expected to release new power-plant restrictions that will cost the industry some $366 billion, but the rules won’t be finalized until later this year.
If Barack Obama’s policies are so popular, why was he compelled to hide them from the American people prior to such an important election?
Nevertheless, after the bureaucratic smoke clears, only a two-thirds vote by Congress or a Supreme Court declaration of unconstitutionality can overturn a presidential executive order.
So fasten your seat belts, America. It’s going to be a rough ride.
Mark Caserta is a conservative blogger, a Cabell County resident and a regular contributor to The Herald-Dispatch editorial page.
To my loyal readers:
I’m honored to have S.H. Townsend as a regular contributor to http://www.FreeStatePatriot. We need to hear what it’s like from someone in the trenches of the so-called “war on women”. I am “greatly” looking forward to her perspective!
This is the first of many insightful columns to come from someone who just may enjoy writing more than anyone I know! While this column was written 2 years ago, I believe you’ll find her style of painting an intimate portrait – refreshing!
Mark Caserta
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TRUTHS FROM THE TRENCHES
“Real life realities of today’s conservative woman”
From author S.H. Townsend:
I am in the thirty+something year of my life. I’ve been married for over a decade, and I have written a forty book series, and I recently published my first book, Dormiveglia.
I drink too much coffee, I exercise… twice a week. I have two cats, but no children. I don’t embarrass easily, but there are certain parts of my life I don’t put the spotlight on.
I have OCD. GAD, and chronic hemiplegic migraines, and some days, I just have a hard time being me…I can’t remember where this one was from, but I saved them all. Since Ebola has entered the states, I no longer desire to go to medical school:I am a workaholic insomniac coffee addicted perfectionist redhead writer who suffers from OCD and chronic migraines, and aspires to be a best seller and a doctor. Need I say more?
Enjoy her blog as well:
http://confessionsofaredhead-shellye.blogspot.com/
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This is Ponderous.
President Obama was reelected today. I haven’t been this depressed since my husband lost his dream job in August.
Yes, I am a Republican. Before I continue, I want to make it known that I am not here to debate or argue or badmouth the Democratic Party. People have the right to choose what political party they support, and I am not going to infringe upon that right. I have the right to be a Republican. I always have been, and I probably always will be. So that being said, let me get to the real reason I am composing this blog. Ever since the results of the election were announced, I realize that I have some serious thinking to do.
Before I go on to this serious thinking, there’s just one thing that bothered me about the election itself. Illegal votes were reported in Hamilton County, Ohio. At this time, no reports have been made as to whether or not the illegal votes have been thrown out and Hamilton County’s ballots have been recounted. I don’t think illegal votes should count, but I’m just an American citizen, what do I know?
I’m concerned about what is going to happen to my dreams, goals, and hopes, now that Obama has been reelected as president. It’s not that I don’t like Barak Obama as a person, I’ve never met him, and that wouldn’t be a fair judgment call, what I’m concerned about are his policies. Is President Barak Obama a Socialist? I think that’s a fair question because Socialism has been shoved into my face via the media in all forms since 2008 due to the health care reform.
According to Google, this is what Socialism looks like:
Keep in mind, this is not my definition of Socialism, this was provided by Google. It also shows that Socialism can eventually turn to Communism. That’s not what I’m here to discuss at this time.
Do any of the above aspects and attributes of Socialism fall into Obama’s policies? I know for sure that redistribution of the wealth does fall into his desires for the United States. And forgive me, but I do not agree with the redistribution of my wealth or yours.
I’m going to use my mother for example. My mother went to nursing school and became an LPN when she was in my age bracket. She had to pay to go to school, save for a few grants. She did not use any loans to pay for her education. She later furthered her education and became an RN. She went back and got several college degrees. She continues to further her education and training for her job. She has money put back for her retirement. Everyone can see that she’s worked hard to get to where she is today.
Why should she have to share what she’s worked so hard to achieve?
She did this ALL BY HERSELF. The people with whom she will be forced to share her wealth were not there when she had the ambition to leave her position as a stay at home mum of two so she could become an LPN. They were not there with her those long hours she spent studying. They were not there at her job interview and did not help her get the job. They were not there to help her when she returned to school.
WHY SHOULD OTHER PEOPLE BE GIVEN HER HARD EARNED MONEY?
Can somebody please answer that question for me? Why should her money be given to people who did not work for it? I don’t see how that’s fair! Maybe I’m just an evil Republican who has old fashioned values, but I think my mother should get to keep her money that she has worked so hard to earn. I’m her child, and I’m not entitled to it unless she decides to give it to me, and that’s how it should be. I may be poor, but I am not entitled to someone else’s money because I DID NOT EARN IT! It’s as simple as that.
Here’s another thing, and I don’t know if Obama has been planning on this, but the collective ownership issue is something else with which I do not agree. I’m going to use my landlady as an example. My landlady owns the cottage we live in and we pay her rent. That’s the agreement. It is her cottage. We pay a fee to reside in her cottage. She and her husband built it from the ground up. My husband and I live in the house where she and her husband spent their first years as a married couple. She also owns and lives in (and I think her late husband had a hand in building it as well) the house in front of us. She and her husband obviously worked hard, so why should the government or anyone else have any right to what she and her husband paid off and own free and clear?
How is that fair to her? And would it be fair to me and my husband if another family decided to move into the cottage with us, since they would have collective ownership of the cottage? It’s private property, and my husband and I are the only other people besides our landlady who have the right to be on the property. It’s the same with cars. I don’t want to share a car that I paid for with other people who did not work to pay for it. They may not take care of it because they didn’t earn it. They didn’t work for it.
Think about it. How would you like someone using your personal private things, the things that you paid good money for that you worked hard to earn? (Some people don’t even like sharing with their siblings. Imagine having to share your property with people you don’t even know!)
I also do not think laziness should be rewarded. And believe me, it’s not – at least not for me and my husband. I NEVER want to be rewarded for laziness.
Do you know how much my husband would get from unemployment after losing his dream job? Only $65.00 per week! We can’t live on that! Do you know how many food stamps we would get if we signed up for them? Maybe $16.00 if we’re lucky and that’s because the government thinks one of us should have a part time minimum wage job. If one of us had a part-time minimum wage job, the government says we would get close to $200.00 or more. (My husband had a part- time minimum wage job that gave him eight hours per week or less, and do you know how much we qualified for in food stamps? Nothing.)
I have looked for a job since February of 2011. (Writing a book series doesn’t pay anything until the first book is published.) I’ve had TWO interviews since February of 2011. I had a woman look at me and say, “Well, you’re just not going to work.” When I asked why, she snapped at me and said, “I DON’T HAVE TO GIVE YOU A REASON.” So I demanded that she give me my resume back. And she glared at me, and I grabbed it out of her hand and I left!
TWO INTERVIEWS IN EIGHTEEN MONTHS! Do you know how humiliating that is? And people think I’m not trying? Really? My husband lost his dream job! I was suicidal! We’ve struggled for so long, and this was just such a shocking blow to us. I don’t want to be back on food stamps! I don’t want my husband to be back on unemployment! I DON’T WANT TO LIVE OFF OF THE GOVERNMENT FOR THE REST OF MY LIFE! I HAVE DREAMS AND THIS IS NOT THE LIFE I WANT FOR MYSELF OR MY HUSBAND! WHAT IS SO WRONG WITH WANTING TO DO MORE THAN JUST SURVIVE?
Until today, I had dreams. Now all I have are questions. What’s going to happen to my dream now?
In 2009, I didn’t like the way my life was going, so I decided to change it. I started writing, mostly for an escape because things were really bad. (Now I’m getting beyond the valley of the realness.) My husband and I had nothing but each other, but our marriage was falling apart. He decided to go back to school to better our lives. (That isn’t turning out the way we had hoped it would.) I did not support him because I thought it was a bad idea. I asked him time after time what we were going to do to survive while he was going to school. He gave me one answer and one answer only. He told me that he was going to school and that nobody was going to stop him. (I’m so glad he supports my dream despite the fact that I wasn’t so supportive of his.) I felt like he didn’t really care what happened to us, nor did he love me enough to address my concerns. I resented his lack of concern and he resented my lack of support.
I started playing game and writing little stories about the characters. One of my friends was totally on board with me. She began adding ideas and listening to me share what was going on in the lives of my characters.
What was a way of escape became something fun for me to share with my friends. Then, people started saying, “Shellye, you should turn it into a book.” At first I dismissed their suggestions, but when my friend prompted me on numerous occasions to take my ideas and put them into a book, I decided that maybe everyone was on to something. So I slowly began building it into a book.
Now it has grown into twelve books, and that’s just dividing what I already have into 500 to 600 page books, and I still have at the very least, twelve more to write.
I’ve worked so hard on this book series. I’ve poured my blood, my sweat, and my tears into it, sometimes all three things, and sometimes in the literal sense. My book has cost me time away from my family and my friends. I have neglected my own needs at times. I’ve had many sleepless nights. There are times I should have been resting, but the story ideas kept coming. There are things I’ve had to say no to because I had work to do. There are calls that I should have been making, but I was in the middle of an important part of the story. There are things I have done and experienced to be a better writer so I can get involved in the character’s emotions and feelings, music I’ve listened to, videos I’ve watched, research I’ve done on things that I am not interested in just to feel what my character is feeling. Countless hours, long days, sleepless nights, and sometimes not leaving my house for days, sometimes ignoring social networking sites. And I did it because I want to be a success. First, I escaped, second, I had fun, third, I believed in myself, and fourth, I want to take care of myself and my family. I think I’ve earned that.
Does Obama think I’ve earned it? That’s my biggest concern.
This is what I’ve been told. If I don’t go after what I want, I will never have it. I want to be a best- selling author. Call me pretentious, but I think I have a chance. But now, I’m faced with the possibility of throwing it all away. Forgive me, but I don’t think anyone has a right to my book or its earnings unless they helped me work on it. My supporters have a right to it. My friend and editor, Carrie, she has a right to it. My husband has a right to it. That’s why it’s so important that I succeed, because my husband is counting on me, my family is counting on me, and the people who put work and effort into the book alongside me, they are counting on me.
I don’t want the government to take that away from me! That’s why I didn’t vote for Obama! I didn’t vote FOR Romney, I voted AGAINST Obama.
And I don’t agree with Romney’s view of women. It’s true, Republican men in power do not have any respect for women. I know this. Republican males see the world and their political party as a boy’s club. I’ve never agreed with that, and that’s because I am a strong woman. I was raised by a strong woman.
I didn’t vote for Obama because I don’t agree with Socialism. I voted AGAINST Obama because I believe in Capitalism. If that makes me a horrible person, let the record show that I am a horrible person. Shout it from the rooftops, declare it in your cities and your schools, whatever you have to do, just do it! I take full responsibility for my horribleness!
I have worked hard, and I dare anyone to tell me that I haven’t! I am sick to death of people and their assumptions. If I hear one more person tell me I’m not going to make it, I may punch them right in the face! (Yes, you may take that seriously. I mean that.) But I’m not going to let the government take it away from me either.
I don’t want to throw away two years worth of hard work, blood, sweat, and tears… But I will if I have to share credit and/or money with strangers who didn’t work for it or earn it because they don’t deserve it. If I’m wrong, then I’m wrong. If I’m evil, then let it be decreed that I’m evil because I don’t want to share my hard earned wealth with someone who didn’t earn it, or someone who is not entitled to it.
It is my dream, and I will share my wealth with the people of my choosing. If I cannot, then, I will be the one to make the decision to kill it. I don’t want to see my work go down the drain, but I WILL NOT let the government take credit for it or redistribute my earnings from it! If I succeed, I should be rewarded for it. Not you. Not people who are too lazy to try to get a job (as if there are any real jobs these days); not the government; and yes, you can quote me.
I thought I was the one who decided where my dream would go from here.
Maybe not…
| Nov 1, 10:41 PM EDT
Didn’t the president tell us to trust the science in this case? By MARTHA MENDOZA AP National Writer |
STANFORD, Calif. (AP) — Top medical experts studying the spread of Ebola say the public should expect more cases to emerge in the United States by year’s end as infected people arrive here from West Africa, including American doctors and nurses returning from the hot zone and people fleeing from the deadly disease. But how many cases? No one knows for sure how many infections will emerge in the U.S. or anywhere else, but scientists have made educated guesses based on data models that weigh hundreds of variables, including daily new infections in West Africa, airline traffic worldwide and transmission possibilities. This week, several top infectious disease experts ran simulations for The Associated Press that predicted as few as one or two additional infections by the end of 2014 to a worst-case scenario of 130. “I don’t think there’s going to be a huge outbreak here, no,” said Dr. David Relman, a professor of infectious disease, microbiology and immunology at Stanford University’s medical school. “However, as best we can tell right now, it is quite possible that every major city will see at least a handful of cases.” Relman is a founding member of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services advisory board for biosecurity and chairs the National Academy of Sciences forum on microbial threats. Until now, projections published in top medical journals by the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control have focused on worst-case scenarios for West Africa, concluding that cases in the U.S. will be episodic, but minimal. But they have declined to specify actual numbers. The projections are complicated, but Ebola has been a fairly predictable virus – extremely infectious, contagious only through contact with body fluids, requiring no more than 21 days for symptoms to emerge. Human behavior is far less predictable – people get on airplanes, shake hands, misdiagnose, even lie. Pandemic risk expert Dominic Smith, a senior manager for life risks at Newark, California-based RMS, a leading catastrophe-modeling firm, ran a U.S. simulation this week that projected 15 to 130 cases between now and the end of December. That’s less than one case per 2 million people. Smith’s method assumes that most cases imported to the U.S. will be American medical professionals who worked in West Africa and returned home. Smith said the high end may be a bit of an overestimate as it does not include the automatic quarantining measures that some areas in the U.S. are implementing. Those quarantines “could both reduce the number of contacts for imported cases, as well as increase the travel burden on – and perhaps reduce the number of – U.S. volunteers planning to support the effort in West Africa,” he said. In a second simulation, Northeastern University professor Alessandro Vespignani projected between one case – the most likely scenario – and a slim chance of as many as eight cases though the end of November. “I’m always trying to tell people to keep calm and keep thinking rationally,” said Vespignani, who projects the spread of infectious diseases at the university’s Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-Technical Systems. In an article in the journal PLOS ONE, Vespignani and a team of colleagues said the probability of international spread outside the African region is small, but not negligible. Longer term, they say international dissemination will depend on what happens in West Africa in the next few months. Their first analysis, published Sept. 2, proved to be accurate when it included the U.S. among 30 countries likely to see some Ebola cases. They projected one or two infections in the U.S., but there could be as many as 10. So far, nine Ebola patients have been treated in the U.S., and one has died. Seven became infected in West Africa, including Thomas Eric Duncan, the first to arrive undiagnosed and the first to die. He was cared for at a Dallas hospital, where two of his nurses were also infected. Duncan, who was initially misdiagnosed and sent home from the emergency room, is Vespignani’s worst-case scenario for the U.S. A similar situation, if left unchecked, could lead to a local cluster that could infect, on the outside, as many as 20, he said. The foreseeable future extends only for the next few months. After that, projections depend entirely on what happens in West Africa. One scenario is that the surge in assistance to the region brings the epidemic under control and cases peter out in the U.S. A second scenario involves Ebola spreading unchecked across international borders. “My worry is that the epidemic might spill into other countries in Africa or the Middle East, and then India or China. That could be a totally different story for everybody,” Vespignani said. Dr. Ashish Jha, a Harvard University professor and director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, said he’s not worried about a handful of new cases in the U.S. His greatest worry is if the disease goes from West Africa to India. “If the infection starts spreading in Delhi or Mumbai, what are we going to do?” Dr. Peter Hotez, founding dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine and director of the Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, pegs the range of cases in the U.S. between five and 100. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention prefers not to focus on a particular number. But spokeswoman Barbara Reynolds said Ebola will not be a widespread threat as some outside the agency have warned. “We’re talking about clusters in some places but not outbreaks,” she said. The CDC is using modeling tools to work on projections in West Africa, but “there isn’t enough data available in the U.S. to make it worthwhile to go through the exercise.” University of Texas integrative biology professor Lauren Ancel Meyers said there are inherent inconsistencies in forecasting “because the course of action we’re taking today will impact what happens in the future.” Her laboratory is running projections of Ebola’s spread in West Africa. The U.S. simulations run for the AP had fairly consistent results with each other, she said. And they are “consistent with what we know about the disease.” |
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